Shell shared its unique scenario expertise in an innovative approach aimed at better understanding and addressing the challenge of AIDS in Africa. In partnership with UNAIDS, three different plausible alternative scenarios were developed to consider how AIDS in Africa might unfold over the next 20 years.
The scenarios illustrate some of the major choices that the world must make in the next two decades as it responds to the AIDS epidemic in Africa. They also highlight what may happen if today’s intentions are not translated into action.
The scenario-building project aims to avoid a worse crisis by:
- fostering a shared, deeper understanding of the drivers, impacts and consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa among a wide group of stakeholders;
- enabling a joint exploration by key stakeholders of the implications of HIV/AIDS in Africa in the context of building a set of plausible future scenarios that identify the potential consequences to Africa over a 20-year time horizon;
- informing the policy response to the AIDS epidemic in Africa in order to promote effective, coherent and sustained action;
- catalysing a partnership approach among key stakeholders, including the private sector and nongovernmental organizations;
- helping in shaping public debate by fostering communication and understanding between different parties;
- assisting in effectively targeting and channelling the financial and other resources allocated to preventing and mitigating HIV/AIDS; and
- facilitating the application of the knowledge and capabilities developed during this project to similar processes for other world regions.